Courteney Morrison

First the ECB, now the BOE…. are Powell and the Fed behind the curve here? Who knows but the BOE decision today was a coin toss but they decided to cut rates, split 5:4 in terms of votes showing just how finely balanced this decision was. On services inflation the MPC view is that, excluding volatile and indexed prices, service inflation is lower than the headline rate suggest. The market was quick to price in a further 2x cuts this year here in the UK though we do not expect any further easing…

A Microsoft miss did nothing to dissuade Europe from having a relatively good midweek rally. It wasn’t really a big miss, and it rallied all the way through the post-market and pre market which helped but all focus was on a raft of European names that managed to report reasonable sets. JDE Peet’s, Teleperformance, Just Eat Takeaway, Airbus, HSBC, Danone, Legrand and Schneider – the list goes on. A decent print from AMD softened some of the fears around the Semi-conductor space too and we were b…

Off to dinner tonight at somewhere that has claims to be ‘London’s Largest Private Terrace’ which is just as well given the weather! Factor 50 applied early because I’ve learnt that lesson one too many times. Other things I’ve learnt over the years is don’t book the last flight home on a Sunday and one for the road is never a good idea (especially on a Tuesday). 9pm this evening not a time for a Whisky but instead time to check the Bloomberg and see what Microsoft, the $3trn beast has said to t…

Tarte Tartin on the menu yesterday as I decided to pull myself away from the Olympics for a couple hours and make some use of myself. It has to be one of the best deserts (and I didn’t mess it up thankfully): not too heavy, quite sweet, and once I got it unstuck from the pan, a real treat! It was a lovely way to set myself up for the week ahead which has a full array of treats in store: Megacap Tech earnings from Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft clearly on peoples minds, Central Bank meetings fr…

Let’s get straight to it – a soft tape following poor moves in the aftermarket post results from Tesla, Alphabet and LVMH and a move lower from Nvidia so it felt like a tricky day to update the market from the outset and it proved to be with the Stoxx 600 ending the day -60bps. We’ve broadly been quiet on the data front this week but there was also some soft Eurozone PMI data which had Manufacturing lower at 45.6, down slightly from 45.8 in June whilst services also fell. This followed material…

The readers in Paris may disagree but has this not been the least excitement in the run up to an Olympic games ever? Reports show the number of unwanted Paris Olympics tickets available for resale has now hit more than 250k though In fairness we’ve just had a mammoth few months of Sport in Europe and I’m sure there are a few disgruntled locals at the cost of putting on such games at these times in France! It’s a shame as I remember the last delayed one in Japan very fondly, fully invested and e…

Oh hello 31 degrees in London tomorrow, we have not been blessed with your presence yet this summer! Anyone unsure what to do? I imagine significant temptation to ‘WFH’, get the BBQ on and enjoy a nice lunch in the Sun (possibly with the Open on in the background) – tbh I think everyone deserves it the way this summer has been! That being said…we’ve got expiries to navigate, rotational gyrations to keep on top of, earnings to digest and there is no doubt more moving parts than many anticipated/…

“Taylor Swift pushes back August Rate Cut Expectations” really should be the headline in ALL the papers tomorrow as the Eras tour was possibly the case for sticky services inflation as Hotel booking prices caused a 8.8% rise in June vs May as Swifties across the world flock to the UK and Hoteliers take advantage! This, plus strong GDP growth and recent sterling appreciation reduce the case for a cut in Bank Rate at the 1 August MPC meeting and we now look for no change in August. There wasn’t a…

All about China to start the week which is just as well as no one (maybe the Scots) want a recap of the sporting weekend just gone! Sadly – ‘all about China’ hasn’t been positive for a while! It started with GDP which came in below estimates at just 4.7%, Industrial Production and Retail Sales both slowed and they left the 1yr MLF unchanged. So what investors who were already a little nervous around China and hoping to see some concise economic stimulation from the Third Plenum summit likely l…

There was a period this morning with the sun shining, England fans happy and flurry of business that felt like the summer lull was going to briefly take a pause. That being said it was U.S. CPI day which ended up, as it always does, sucking most of the life out of markets for the morning. However it was worth waiting for and good news when it came. Cooler than expected MoM at 0.1% for core and what seems like another step in the right direction. 4.2% on the 10yr is a key short term support and…